Game of the Day: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers

FS1 (national TV) · Thu Oct 15, 5:00 PM PT / 8:00 PM ET · Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles

This is our pick for the day's game to watch: the biggest national stage and the most interesting market. It's information, not a pick or a recommendation to bet. If you do bet, compare prices below and set a budget.

Game of the Day: Brewers at Dodgers, NLCS Game 4

By Jessica Wilson Thursday, Oct. 15, 2026 · 5:00 p.m. PT / 8:00 p.m. ET · FS1 (also FOX One, FOX Deportes) · Dodger Stadium

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Okay boys, phones down for one sec. Actually no, keep them up, you'll need them for the lines.

Milwaukee is up 3-0 on the Dodgers in the NLCS. The two-time defending champs, the team with the biggest payroll in baseball, are one loss from going home before Halloween. Only one team in MLB history has ever come back from 0-3 (2004 Red Sox, ask your dad).

If you're watching one game tonight, it's this one. It's the Game of the Day.

Why this one and not the other stuff

Yes, I know there's Thursday Night Football. Seahawks at Broncos, 5:15 PT on Prime. Cute. The ALCS had Rays at Guardians earlier on TBS. NBA preseason and NHL are on too.

But c'mon. Two 100-win teams. A rematch of last year's NLCS, which LA swept. Now Milwaukee has beaten them five straight. One more win and the Brewers are in their first World Series since 1982.

A superstar who can't buy a hit. A lefty making his postseason debut with a pennant on the line. Yeah, this is the main character.

The series so far (catch up, I won't judge)

Game 1 in Milwaukee: Brewers 2, Dodgers 1. Skubal vs. Misiorowski was supposed to be an ace duel. Neither one got through five. Andy Pages gave LA the lead with an RBI single in the 2nd. Then Brice Turang led off the 4th and took Skubal deep the opposite way on a fastball on the inner edge to tie it. Rude. In the 5th, Garrett Mitchell walked, Cooper Pratt bunted him over, and 21-year-old rookie Luis Lara bounced the go-ahead single up the middle. Bullpen locked it down, Trevor Megill closed. Dodgers -1.5 didn't cover. Under 6 hit.

Game 2 in Milwaukee: Brewers 7, Dodgers 4. Yoshinobu Yamamoto lasted 2 2/3 innings, the shortest postseason start of his career (AP). Jake Bauers drew a 12-pitch walk (respect) and Christian Yelich hit a two-run single. LA took the lead three times. Milwaukee answered in the same inning all three times. Petty, and I love it. William Contreras was the guy: a 436-foot tying homer off Kris Bubic in the 5th, then the go-ahead single in the 6th. The pen threw five perfect innings. Over 7 hit.

Game 3 in LA: Brewers 6, Dodgers 2. Jackson Chourio homered on the first pitch of the game. Lefty rookie Robert Gasser threw five scoreless. Then Abner Uribe walked the bases loaded in the 6th and Will Smith's two-run double put LA up 2-1. That lasted like ten minutes.

In the 7th, Jake Bauers won an 11-pitch fight with Blake Snell and hit a go-ahead two-run homer. Garrett Mitchell went back-to-back right after. Snell hadn't given up a homer in 46 1/3 innings before that (MLB.com). Milwaukee added a run on a wild pitch in the 8th and one more in the 9th. Final: 6-2. Over 7.5. Brewers covered again.

The receipts: Three games, three Milwaukee covers of Dodgers -1.5. LA has seven runs, fifteen hits, and 25 strikeouts in three NLCS games (SI). That's not a slump, that's a whole personality.

Milwaukee: 103-59, NL Central champs, honestly just better rn

Regular season: .258 team average, 832 runs, 3.51 ERA, 1.18 WHIP. 48-33 on the road. They're 6-1 this October, and the staff has a 1.74 postseason ERA, best of all 12 playoff teams (MLB.com).

Turang drove in 100. Chourio hit .291/.351/.487. Bauers keeps showing up exactly when the series is on the line, which is very main-character of him.

Tonight's starter: Shane Drohan. As of this afternoon MLB.com lists the 27-year-old lefty as Milwaukee's starter. Tom Verducci at SI reported it first, citing a team source. Some books still show "TBD" because the Brewers were slow to make it official, so check your app.

His numbers, per SI: 33 appearances (19 starts), 4.19 ERA, 125 K and 44 BB in 124 2/3 innings. Fastball and sinker both sit around 95. Late in the year he moved to the bullpen and was nasty in short stints (1.47 ERA as a reliever, per MLB.com). He hasn't pitched since Sept. 27 and hasn't gone more than five since Aug. 13. This is his first career postseason appearance.

Translation: it's basically a bullpen game. Former Dodger Dustin May is expected behind him, with Kyle Harrison and Chad Patrick also available. That keeps Misiorowski fresh for a possible Game 5.

Injuries: Brandon Woodruff is still on the 60-day IL with a right shoulder injury. He's been throwing off a mound and hopes to come back as a reliever if Milwaukee makes the World Series (MLB.com). Quinn Priester and a few others are out longer. They've been winning without them anyway.

Los Angeles: 100-62, NL West champs, backs against the wall

100 wins, 204 homers, .257/.338/.424, 3.55 ERA. None of that matters if the bats stay cold. They were 51-30 at home and are 3-4 this postseason. They beat Atlanta in four in the NLDS. They haven't beaten Milwaukee once in this series.

Shohei Ohtani is the storyline. After Game 3 he's hitting .182 this postseason (4-for-22) with seven strikeouts, four walks, zero RBIs and zero extra-base hits (AP). Last homer: Aug. 18 at Coors. He's also playing through right biceps and left knee issues (MLB.com).

Roberts dropped him to sixth in Game 3, the lowest he's ever hit as a Dodger. He flied out, got hit by a pitch, walked, and singled with two outs in the 8th. Small W. And tonight Roberts is bumping him back to leadoff, with Will Smith hitting cleanup (MLB.com).

Projected Dodgers lineup: Ohtani DH, Betts SS, Freeman 1B, Smith C, Tucker RF, T. Hernández LF, Rojas 2B, Pages CF, K. Hernández 3B.

Tyler Glasnow starts for LA (5-2, 3.53 ERA). He held Atlanta to one run on one hit over 4 2/3 in NLDS Game 4, but he also walked five (CBS/SportsLine). Big strikeout guy at home: 51 K in 36 innings, and over 5.5 K in all six Dodger Stadium starts in SI's numbers. He struck out eight Brewers in 5 2/3 in last year's NLCS. If anybody can drag LA to Game 5, it's the 6'8" guy with the filthy stuff.

LA's pitching depth is thin: Gavin Stone, Jake Cousins, Ben Casparius and Brusdar Graterol are on the injured list (ESPN), Blake Treinen is unlikely to pitch this postseason, and Will Klein hasn't pitched in a game since July 31 (MLB.com), so the pen isn't as deep as the rings make it look.

The matchup, in plain English

Milwaukee wins with left-handed pitching and clutch hits. They're 9-for-27 (.333) with runners in scoring position this series (CBS). Drohan covers the lefty part. Bauers, Chourio and Contreras cover the rest.

LA needs Glasnow to throw strikes and go deep so the pen doesn't have to cover six innings. And it needs Ohtani, Freeman, Smith and Pages to stop leaving guys on base. Roberts said it himself after Game 3: they had chances and didn't get the hits.

Will LA wake up, or does Milwaukee finish the sweep on the champs' home field? Either way, it's going to be good TV.

Betting lines (refreshed ~2:30 p.m. PT, Oct. 15)

Okay, the part you actually came for. The market has barely moved since this morning. LA is still a modest home favorite.

| Market | Brewers | Dodgers | Source | |--------|---------|---------|--------| | Moneyline | +130 to +138 | -152 to -157 | Sports Helix live odds (DraftKings / BetMGM / BetOnline) | | Run line | +1.5 (-160 to -167) | -1.5 (+135 to +140) | Sports Helix live odds (DraftKings / BetMGM / BetOnline) | | Total | 8 at DraftKings and BetMGM (Over -105, Under -115); 7.5 at BetOnline (Over -120, Under +100) | | Sports Helix live odds | | Team total | Brewers o3.5 (about -105) | Dodgers o4.5 (about +110) | ScoresAndOdds |

Series price (DraftKings via FOX Sports, Oct. 14): Brewers -285 / Dodgers +235.

Money splits: I couldn't find a verified public ticket/handle split for this game, so I'm not going to make one up. Here's what the price is doing instead: LA was -175 in Game 3 and is only about -152 to -157 tonight, even with Glasnow (SI). So the books aren't buying the comeback as much as the public is.

Lines move. Check your book before first pitch.

Trends, the quick version

• Milwaukee is 3-0 vs. the -1.5 this series.
• Brewers have won 5 straight vs. LA.
• Totals: under in G1, over in G2 and G3. Books are split between 7.5 and 8 tonight, and over 7.5 is getting juiced (-120 at BetOnline, -125 at some books).
• Brewers pitching: 1.74 postseason ERA. LA's bats: about .188 this postseason (SI).
• SportsLine's model gives Milwaukee about a 49% win chance and grades the Brewers ML (+132) a "B."
• The other side: SI and Hard Rock both picked the Dodgers. Drohan's rust (nothing since Sept. 27) and a bullpen game are real risks.

Props to know about

• Glasnow over 5.5 Ks (-155), over 6.5 at +131 (SI). Six straight home starts over 5.5, and Milwaukee struck out 28.7% of the time over the last 30 days (per SI). Red flag: he walked five last start, and walks run up the pitch count.
• Brewers team total over 3.5 (about even money), SportsLine expert Angelo Magliocca's angle, built around Glasnow's command issues and Milwaukee cashing in with runners on.
• Drohan outs/Ks: be careful. If books post these at all, the lines will be low, and his leash is short. He's an opener, not a workhorse.
• Ohtani: back at leadoff, 4-for-22, banged up. Could break out, could keep scuffling. Treat any Ohtani prop like a coin flip with feelings.

The angle we like

Brewers moneyline (around +130 to +138).

Not because sweeps are guaranteed. LA swept them last year, and Glasnow is a problem. It's because for a full week Milwaukee has been the better team, they keep covering, they keep answering back, and you're still getting plus money on them. If Drohan and May hand it off cleanly and Bauers keeps doing Bauers things, Milwaukee is going to the World Series for the first time in 44 years.

Want the safer version of the same read? Brewers +1.5 (-160 to -167). Riding with the Dodgers? Glasnow over 5.5 Ks is the cleanest LA-side number.

My read: Milwaukee finishes it tonight. Don't be mad, LA.

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Odds refreshed around 2:30 p.m. PT on Oct. 15, 2026, and they can change before first pitch. Starter per MLB.com, though some books still list Milwaukee as TBD. This is analysis, not a guarantee. If you play, keep it fun, set a budget, and never chase. 21+ where legal. Problem gambling help: 1-800-GAMBLER.

Sources: MLB.com (Game 4 preview, lineups, pitching), AP and MLB.com recaps (Games 1-3), Sports Illustrated (Gilbert odds/props; Verducci on Drohan), CBS Sports/SportsLine, Hard Rock Bet, ScoresAndOdds, FOX Sports (series odds), ESPN (injuries), FanDuel Research.

Odds for this game aren't in our feed yet.

Milwaukee Brewers

Los Angeles Dodgers

Source: ESPN public injury feed (real data).

• Brewers lead the NLCS 3-0; Dodgers face elimination
• Lefty Shane Drohan's postseason debut vs. Tyler Glasnow
• Brewers 3-0 on the run line this series; Ohtani back at leadoff